Navigating Setbacks: How the 2024 Election Shapes the Next Chapter of the Climate Fight
With the results of the 2024 election, the next chapter of the ongoing (and bumpy) journey toward net zero begins now.
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From the perspective of climate progress, there was one clear choice in the presidential election. Americans made the opposite choice. The policy promises of the Trump team are promises to recarbonize, not decarbonize, the economy. Don’t expect any federal climate leadership in the U.S. these next four years.
But despite what the oil and gas industry says, this vote wasn’t a referendum on climate action — or the clean energy economy. People didn’t check the Trump/Vance box because they don’t care about the climate. Climate change got very little attention on the campaign trail. It just wasn’t anywhere close to being a top, immediate priority for voters.
This has always been the great challenge of climate advocacy: to convince people to prioritize - in their politics, in their budgets, and in their lives - deep investments now for the sake of avoiding horrible scenarios 50 or 100 years out.
For those of us who see climate change as the defining issue of this century, and the great cause of our lifetimes, the election outcome is deeply frustrating. We may not think it’s a rational choice. We may not understand it or believe in it. One reason the election outcome is so difficult is that the year 2030 has so much symbolism. We were to have cut global emissions by half by then, according to science. This next presidential term covers most of the time between now and 2030.
The climate movement has always been an uphill battle. Mounting climate consciousness in the 1990s led to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 - which the U.S. then, a year later, refused to ratify. Many watershed years have come and gone, with targets missed, and sights realigned. 2000 was one such year. So were the periods of 2008-2012, and 2020. The clearest roadmaps to net-zero are invariably interrupted by economic crisis, war, pandemic, and political swings, and then redrawn to account for the new context. In 30 years, some climate goals and milestones have been met. Many have been missed.
But unless we come to see each setback as a moment of opportunity, we will be forced to conclude that we’ve lost, for good. Of course we haven’t. The movement has built strength over all these many setbacks, and we shouldn’t expect anything different now.
For one, the gears of the climate economy are turning, and will not stop. Climate change is on people’s minds now more than ever. This is not just because more people are experiencing its effects. It’s also because more people are reaping the benefits of the net zero transition. Don’t expect either of these trends to reverse.
The growth of low carbon inputs and industries is one of the greatest growth opportunities of this century, and even if the U.S. is not chasing it with policy, businesses will continue to, because their future fortunes depend on being a part of the economy of the future - one that’s distinctly low carbon.
Many large boosts to the climate economy have come from big federal actions. But U.S. federal leadership on climate has always been uneven, and is hardly the only source of strength. States, markets, and companies provide significant measures of support, more consistently. And so now is the time for states, markets, and companies to keep things moving along.
Over the last decade, the recognition of the need to eliminate emissions has been passed back and forth between governments, businesses, and community institutions and individuals. Millions of people now think every day about climate change either as consumers, workers, or, unfortunately, victims. This widespread awareness will survive the new administration.
The challenge to us all is to convert that awareness into resolve and action - not let let dissolve into complacency and resignation.
Each company will need to define what resolve and action mean to them. Some will be nervous about being public about that resolve and action. Others will be more willing to step out front and lead.
But whether it’s done loudly or quietly, every company needs to recognize that on November 5th, voluntary corporate climate action became obligatory.
In the coming months, we’ll learn more about how the new administration will prioritize its recarbonization agenda. For now, our team’s main focus will be to:
It’s a difficult time for the climate movement, but in moments like this, leadership is born. We know that movements are forming, and voluntary climate action, now obligatory, will be both an act of resistance, and an act of hope.
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Austin Whitman is the CEO of The Change Climate Project. He started working on climate and clean energy 19 years ago and believes companies and individuals can make a huge difference for the climate if they're just shown how. When he's not engrossed in organization-building, he's probably with his family or being an amateur at one of his many hobbies.
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